Thanksgiving

You-More-Fortunate-3-Billion-People-infographic It's very difficult to keep perspective on how lucky we truly are on a day to day basis.  But Thanksgiving is a good day to stop and take a step back and consider all that we have to be thankful for.

If you have access to clean drinking water, an income of more than $4,000 per year and a college degree, you're better off -- much better off -- than 94% of the world's population.

I came cross this infographic that gives a bit more perspective.  Lots and lots to be thankful for this year.

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

Business Review Agenda

Some colleagues have been asking me about the best format for a business review.  I thought I’d post my recommended agenda here:

  1. Where Are We Now
    • High level overview of business
    • Metrics we track – Leading & Lagging
    • Actuals
    • What’s working/what’s not working
  2. Where We Want To Be
    • Goals by week, month, quarter
    • Current gap to goal
  3. How We’re Going To Get There
    • Initiatives
    • Pipelines
  4. Why you should believe we can get there
    • Success Story (Case Study)
    • Proof Points
    • Qualitative Progress/Testimonials

The thinking here is that the person you’re presenting to wants to understand how you look at the business, how you’re doing, how you’re doing against goal, what your plan is to close the gap and, finally, some proof as to why they should believe in you.  Obviously, any smart manager will poke holes in each section and look for your weaknesses.  But generally speaking if you have a plan you believe in and can do each of these things well the meeting should go pretty smoothly.

Why College Isn't Getting Cheaper

There’s a great column this week from James Surowiecki in the New Yorker where he talks about the education bubble the U.S. might be facing.  I recommend reading it if you get a chance. 

Related to the column, over the weekend, I was thinking about how much more valuable a car is now than it was 20 years ago.  These days, you can buy a beautiful brand new reliable car with good gas mileage with all the bells and whistles for about $12,000.  When I was a kid the only people that had cars like that were the rich Dads.  Today, there are rich people and lower middle class people driving around in the exact same car. 

The reason for this is twofold: 1.) global competition has driven down the price of a car and 2.) car companies have become wildly more efficient, allowing them to build much more car for a relatively small amount of money. 

The same can’t be said for college education.  Global competitors can’t “import” a cheaper education and colleges and universities aren’t any more productive than they were 20 years ago. 

Because of technology innovations and a more skilled workforce, the average worker at GM is much, much more productive than she was 20 years ago.  This is not true of the average professor at Harvard.  She’s still teaching about 20 students per class and it still takes 4 years to produce a diploma.  At the same time, that professor is making much more than she was 20 years ago.  Costs are increasing, output is not.  And colleges simply pass the increasing costs onto students.

As Surowiecki notes in his column, some of this is inherent to the educational industry – it’s generally easier to improve productivity in a manufacturing environment than it is in a classroom.  But it also points out the gross lack of educational innovation coming out of college campuses.  The Occupiers should add that to their list of grievances.

The End of Rock?

I was listening to the Sports Guy's podcast the other day and he was interviewing Nathan Hubbard, Ticketmaster's CEO of ticketing.  It was a fascinating podcast, I recommend listening to it if you're interested in the ticketing space or sports marketing in general.

He said a lot of really interesting things through the interview but the most interesting to me was when he talked about the end of rock and roll.  He pointed out that music revolutions happen about every 50 years and the days of dominant bands with just a guitar, bass and drums are beginning to disapear -- rock has been around since the 1940's.

I try to follow new music pretty closely and I have to agree with Hubbard.  Like everything else, computers are taking over -- even music production. 

As evidence of this shift, take a look at the artists with the top ten selling songs in iTunes's "Rock" category right now and the song release dates:

  1. Nickleback - 2011
  2. Ram Jaam - 1995
  3. Trapt - 2002
  4. Ozzy Osbourne - 2003
  5. Goo Goo Dolls - 1998
  6. Disturbed - 2000
  7. Semisonic - 2003
  8. Daughtry - 2011
  9. Kenny Loggins - 1997
  10. Disturbed - 2011

Only three of these songs were produced in the last 8 years.

Conversely, here's the top 10 in the "Electronic" genre:

  1. M83 - 2011
  2. Ellie Goulding - 2011
  3. Skrillex - 2010
  4. Duck Sauce - 2010
  5. Owl City - 2009
  6. Skrillex - 2011
  7. M.I.A. 2007
  8. Parov Stellar - 2010
  9. Bassnectar - 2010
  10. James Blake - 2011

All of these were produced in the last four years.  

I suppose it's no surprise that technology has changed the game for musical sound and production, but it's a bit eye opening to see how far it has come.

The Occupiers and Capitalism

On Sunday I had the chance to check out the Occupy Wall Street protest in New York.  It was a pretty amazing scene.  Check out this blog that’s posting updated photos.

I’ve been thinking a lot about what the protest means and if these people are really onto something, or if this is just the latest rant that will go away when cold weather finally hits the east coast.  

Last night I came across Thomas Friedman’s column titled, There’s Something Happening Here.  In it, Friedman proposes that these protests could be a signal that we’ve reached a tipping point in capitalism, he points out this argument:

…these demonstrations are a sign that the current growth-obsessed capitalist system is reaching its financial and ecological limits. 

Yes, the rich are getting richer and the corporations are making profits — with their executives richly rewarded. But, meanwhile, the people are getting worse off — drowning in housing debt and/or tuition debt — many who worked hard are unemployed; many who studied hard are unable to get good work; the environment is getting more and more damaged; and people are realizing their kids will be even worse off than they are.  

On the other hand, he looks at it  more optimistically: 

Yes, corporations now have access to more cheap software, robots, automation, labor and genius than ever. So holding a job takes more talent. But the flip side is that individuals —individuals — anywhere can now access the flow to take online courses at Stanford from a village in Africa, to start a new company with customers everywhere or to collaborate with people anywhere. We have more big problems than ever and more problem-solvers than ever.

As we consider these arguments, I think it’s critical to keep in mind economies are cyclical -- we have good times and we have bad times.  And occasionally, economies go through revolutions; in recent history, the U.S. economy has been through the agricultural, industrial and information revolutions – and we’re still in the thick of the last one, and we’re feeling the pain.  

In this most recent revolution, when most pessimists point to the bad news, they point to the unemployment rate.  But here’s an important statistic that often doesn't get talked about: the U.S. unemployment rate is 9%; for those with grad degrees it's 2%, college grads 4.5%, HS grads 9.7%, non-HS grads 15%. 

This data shows us that our economy is going through the painful transition that we’ve experienced in every economic revolution: a mismatch between our growing job sectors and our citizen’s talent (this particular gap is amplified by the housing crash that viciously eliminated scores of jobs for less educated American workers).  

In time, as it always does, the economy will naturally close this gap.  But we can and should do a lot to speed up the process: skilled worker training programs, changes in high school curriculums to include skills the economy needs, increased student loans for growth sectors, increased investment in growth sectors, to name a few solutions.

The “Occupiers” passion is inspiring and it underscores the important problems and real pain our nation is facing.  They have a good message and I’m glad their voices are being heard.  But as the conversation evolves into solutions, I hope it moves away from theoretical discussions on the merits of capitalism and the principles of taxation.  And towards more practical, easy to implement, solutions that get people back to work  in sustainable jobs that keep America competitive now and into the next revolution.

eBay's Mobile Growth

This week TechCrunch reported that eBay is projecting $4 billion in Gross Sales Merchandise (GSM) for 2011 -- that is total sales volume through their marketplace, not revenue.  That's 100% YoY growth in that metric.

I'd estimate that they'll do about $80 billion in total GSM this year, which means that ~5% of shopping on eBay will be done through their mobile applications.  Mobile commerce is becoming real.

The article also notes that they sell 2,600 vehicles through their mobile application each week.  Mind boggling. 

A Daily Deal Bubble?

I was watching Michael Lewis on Charlie Rose the other night talking about his new book and the European debt crisis. I was most interested when he was talking about Iceland and their recent currency bubble that led to the collapse of all three of the country’s commercial banks.  He was explaining that, at one point, it got so bad that 30 year old fishermen that had never had another job outside of fishing were literally walking off of boats and into banks to take jobs trading currencies.  

When do you know you have a bubble?  When you have fishermen trading currencies for your country’s largest banks.

This leads me to the question of local daily deals.  Is this industry experiencing a bubble?  Is there too much investment?  Is it setup to fail? 

It’s hard to tell.  But take a look at this short list of companies that have built daily deal programs for their customers in the last several months. 

  • BlueCross BlueShield Association
  • NBC
  • Time Warner Cable
  • 95.5 KLOS (a radio station in Southern California)
  • The Boston Globe
  • Car & Driver Magazine
  • Intuit
  • Target 

For many companies this isn’t a huge investment and there are some synergies between their core business and daily deals; as an example, radio stations can use their existing sales force to sell a local deal as an add-on product for their advertisers.

But when health insurance providers and cable television companies are entering the space, it begins to feel a bit like a fisherman working the currency desk.  

My bet is that a correction is coming to the deals space.  The only question is -- when should we head back to the boats?

Client Management Lesson #3: Manage Expecations

This is the third post in a seven part series on Key Client Management Lessons. Lesson #3: Manage Expectations

For this lesson I'm going to refer back to a post I did back in 2007 titled, The Best Business Lesson Ever.  Click here to read that post.

The lesson, in short, is this formula: Perception Minus expectations Equals Satisfaction (P - E = S).

Managing expectations is a critical part of client management, I'd encourage you to read the post and memorize the formula.

Going Mobile

I had some interesting discussions last week around mobile application development.  One thing that’s interesting about new and fast growing channels like mobile is that they cause entrepreneurs to develop products to serve the channel, rather than to build value and serve the user.  That is, businesses build apps to build apps, rather than build “products” that truly address critical unmet needs. 

For mobile to work, you must have a core proposition that works (very often, that proposition has very little to do with mobile). 

I built the following framework outlining when I believe web services should go mobile: 

  1. More Exposure and Engagement: you have a product that works now on the desktop, you want people to engage ‘on the go’.  Action: build a mobile friendly website.
  2. Better as an app: your desktop product doesn’t work well in a mobile browser due to site layout, widgets, flash issues, etc.  Action: build an app that gives users all of the functionality of your desktop site on their phones.
  3. Must be an app: your product value proposition doesn’t work on the desktop (e.g. it requires geo-location, phone ‘bumping’ etc.).  Action: build an app and a desktop site to support user engagement.

Insulting Steve Jobs

I'm on a Steve Jobs kick lately; last week I wrote about how someday there may be statues of him all over the country. I came across this great video of him responding to an insult from someone in the audience at the 1997 Apple Developer Conference, just after he was renamed CEO.  If you listen closely, you'll notice that in his response he does far more than respond to the heckler.  He  lays out Apple's philosophy on product development that would fundamentally drive their outrageous success for the next 15 years.

Start with the consumer.  The consumer must drive the technology.  It's five minutes long but definitely worth watching.

 

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF-tKLISfPE]

Google+ is Trying to Fix Social Networking

I’m a member of most of the big social networks (Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, Google+, etc.).  To me, the concept of online social networking is awesome.  Connecting and socializing through the web is a wonderful concept.  And it actually works pretty well in many ways. It’s incredibly easy to share online; nearly every website has “Like” and “Tweet” buttons and most sites are pretty easy to use.  And for the most part the people I want to share with are on the social networks I use.

But the thing that’s missing from online social networking, that makes it completely unlike real social interactions, is that there isn’t an easy way to share with discretion.

In the real world, using social discretion is extremely important and extremely easy to do.  There are things that I tell my best friend at work that wouldn't interest my friend from high school's mother.  There are things that I share with my high school friends that wouldn't interest my brother.  So in the real world, I simply don't share things with people that don't care about them.  This discretion is perhaps one of the most basic laws of social interaction.  But it's nearly non-existent in online social networks.  For the most part, when people share online, they share with everyone.

In the real world, sharing with everyone, without discretion, causes people to not like you.  Online, the lack of an easy discretion tool causes two other problems:

  1. It creates a ton of "noise" -- unsolicited, superfluous information consumption
  2. It prevents people -- especially adults, I would argue -- from sharing more online

Both of these are huge problems for social networking, and they're the reason I don't share more online.

It turns out that Google+ has a great solution to these problems.  They call it "Circles".  Take a look at the video below, it's only a minute.

I think Circles is a brilliant concept that has the potential to massively grow usage of social networks.  The challenge is of course that most people aren't on Google+ and I hear that ~80% of accounts are inactive.  Another challenge is that it takes a lot of time to build your circles and many people may not be willing to do that work.  Though I'm sure Google's technology and data could find a way to build Circles for you somewhat easily.

Regardless of whether or not Google+ takes off, the lack of discretion is the biggest problem with social networking and, in the long term, I'll be using the service that's easy to use, has the people I want to share with and facilitates simple discretion.

Statues of Steve Jobs

One of my management professors in business school once told my class that someday we'll see statues of Steve Jobs all over the United States.  

It was his view that Jobs literally saved the U.S. and its economy by recognizing the commercial potential of PARC's mouse-driven graphical user interface (GUI) back in the early eighties.  The invention of GUI led to the personal computer and put the U.S. in a position of power in the software and computing industry.  At a time when it seemed America was rapidly losing in every major industry (automobiles, electronics, manufacturing, etc.), winning in software and computing may be the reason the U.S. continues to be a global economic powerhouse (by most measures the list of the top software and technology companies is still dominated by American companies).

Regardless of whether he deserves the statues might be debatable, but his outrageous success as a businessman is not. The Economist had an article covering his resignation as CEO of Apple this week.  In it, they included a timeline of his career.  I pulled out a few examples and added some of my own to illustrate what an absolute business legend Jobs has been.  Amazing.

1976 - Co-founds Apple, launches first personal computer

1980 - Apple goes public

1984 - Launches Macintosh

1985 - Ousted as CEO after boardroom coup

1985 - Founds Pixar

1997 - Renamed Apple CEO

1998 - Launches iMac

1999 - Launches iBook

2001 - Opens first Apple Store

2001 - Launches iPod

2003 - Launches iTunes

2006 - Pixar sold to Disney for $7.4 billion

2007 - Launches iPhone

2010 - Launches iPad

2011 - Apple surpasses Exxon Mobil as most valuable company in the world

For more on Jobs, check out Jim Keenan's recent post that includes some of his favorite quotes on business. Some great stuff in there.